31  motivation

This is a bit grim for motivation, but it is super important.

Let’s discuss what’s going on by looking at these interactive graphs.

Source: Wikimedia

From Westen, Kliphuis, and Dijkstra (2024):

Classical early warning indicators, such as the increase in the variance and/or the (lag-1) autocorrelation, when applied to sea surface temperature-based time series, suggest that the present-day Atlantic meridional overturning circulation approaches a tipping point before the end of this century (11, 12).

31.1 questions

  • disconsidering the expected annual cycle, how fast is the ocean warming up?
  • what is a typical annual oscillation in temperature?
  • how can I model processes such as this, where there are both a clear trend and a seasonal component?